North American imported lumber lag luam tam sim no muaj kev xav tau tsis muaj zog, tab sis cov nqi tseem nyob ruaj khov. Qeb FAS 4/8 Red Oak, piv txwv li, txuas ntxiv kev lag luam ntawm qib siab tshaj RMB 9,000 ib lub cubic meter.
Nqe Resilience Amidst Market Slump
Txij li thaum pib ntawm 2025, qhov kev thov rau cov ntoo tuaj txawv teb chaws North American tau tseem feem ntau qeeb. Txawm li cas los xij, FAS 4/8-nti Red Oak tus nqi tau nyob tsis tu ncua siab dua RMB 9,000 ib lub cubic meter, nthuav tawm qhov txawv txav "tus nqi nce nrog ntim poob" tshwm sim.
Kev lag luam tsom xam qhia tias nce nqi ntshuam yog qhov tseem ceeb rau tus nqi ruaj khov, nrog ntau tus tub luam tam sim no ua haujlwm poob. Cov ntaub ntawv soj ntsuam kev lag luam qhia tau hais tias raws li US -Tuam Tshoj tariff tensions nce nyob rau hauv 2025, tus nqi rau tuab Red Oak lumber txuas ntxiv nce. FAS 8/4-nti qib pom ze li ntawm 30% tus nqi nce piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo 2024, nce mus txog RMB 10,000 qhov pib thaum tswj qib siab dua RMB 9,000 .
Cov nqi ntshuam rau North American lumber tau nce kwv yees li 30%, vim yog RMB depreciation thiab kev lag luam tsis tu ncua. Kev thauj khoom thoob ntiaj teb cuam tshuam tau ntxiv cov nqi sib txuas ntxiv. Geopolitical kev tsis sib haum xeeb nyob rau hauv Middle East tau tsav cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb siab dua $ 118 ib chim, thaum cov nqi thauj khoom los ntawm cov kev thauj khoom tseem ceeb tau nce siab heev. Container shipping comprehensive index (SCFI) tau nce 35% hauv ib lub lis piam, nrog rau cov khoom thauj los ntawm New Zealand mus rau Tuam Tshoj nce ntawm $ 27-28 txog $ 31-33 ib lub cubic meter.
Kev Lag Luam Siab Mount
Txawm hais tias tus nqi ruaj khov, cov tub lag luam ntsib kev nyuaj siab. Nruab nrab-tier kev lag luam xav tau tseem ceeb tsis muaj zog, nrog cov khoom siv nyias tus nqi tseem ceeb txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Kev thov tsis muaj zog tau ua rau cov khoom lag luam khaws cia thiab cov nyiaj txiag nyuaj, thaum nce nqi ntshuam tau ua rau cov nyiaj tau los rau rab chais - cov paj me me lossis poob .
Qee cov tub lag luam tshaj tawm tias tam sim no muag cov nqi rau Red Oak ntawm RMB 9,000 ib lub cubic meter twb sawv cev rau qhov poob loj. Ntau tus nyiam tuav cov khoom muag hauv kev cia siab ntawm kev ua lag luam rov qab tsis yog muag ntawm tus nqi qis dua, uas tau muab qee tus nqi txhawb nqa.
Yav tom ntej Outlook
Saib ua ntej, North American lumber kev lag luam koom nrog ntseeg tias Red Oak cov nqi yuav tswj cov qib siab hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, txawm tias qhov kev thov tsis muaj zog tuaj yeem txwv kev nce ntxiv. Yog tias North American cov khoom siv log tsis txhim kho thiab cov nqi ntshuam tseem muaj siab, Red Oak cov nqi tsis zoo li yuav poob. Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias qhov kev thov tsis muaj zog ntxiv, cov neeg lag luam 'kev ua haujlwm siab yuav txuas ntxiv mus, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev sib koom ua lag luam tshiab.
Footnote (Cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw)
Cov ntaub ntawv nthuav tawm hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm no yog tsim los ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas kev lag luam luam tawm los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Timber Network, Tuam Tshoj Wood Information Network, thiab cov xov xwm kev lag luam ntoo suav nrog Yuzhu Timber thiab Wood369 . Cov ntsiab lus ntxiv ntawm cov nqi logistics yog kos los ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas kev lag luam los ntawm Wood Data thiab China Logistics Information Center . Kev soj ntsuam kev lag luam thiab kev tawm tswv yim ntawm cov tub lag luam qhia txog cov xwm txheej qhia los ntawm cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam hauv Guangdong thiab lwm qhov chaw loj hauv Suav teb.
